feat: 换股规划 swap-plan — 深套股可替代性排序+资金释放方案

- print_swap_plan(): 五维评分（亏损程度/仓位/技术趋势/流动性/前景）
- 排序输出，明确标注"当前亏损X%深套"而非"深套持有"
- --need 参数模拟指定资金需求，自动计算卖几只够
- 可独立运行：python strategy_lifecycle.py swap-plan [--need 金额]

scripts/strategy_lifecycle.py

@@ -2528,5 +2528,150 @@ def regenerate_all(stdout=True):
     return summary
 
 
+# ── 换股规划（调仓优先级排序） ──
+def print_swap_plan(need_cash: float = 0):
+    """输出深套股调仓优先级排序
+    
+    Args:
+        need_cash: 需要的资金额（元），0=显示全部排序不指定金额
+    """
+    import sqlite3
+    from mo_data import read_portfolio
+    from mofin_db import get_conn
+    
+    pf = read_portfolio()
+    holdings = pf.get("holdings", [])
+    if not holdings:
+        print("无持仓数据")
+        return
+    
+    total_mv = pf.get("total_mv", 0)
+    total_cash = pf.get("cash_available", pf.get("cash", 0))
+    
+    print(f"📊 当前总市值={total_mv:,.0f}  可用现金={total_cash:,.0f}")
+    if need_cash > 0:
+        print(f"🎯 需要释放资金: {need_cash:,.0f}")
+        print()
+    
+    # 计算每只深套股的评分
+    scored = []
+    for h in holdings:
+        code = h["code"]
+        name = h["name"]
+        price = h.get("price", 0)
+        cost = h.get("cost", 0)
+        shares = h.get("shares", 0)
+        mv = h.get("market_value", 0) or shares * price
+        pnl_pct = (price - cost) / cost * 100 if cost > 0 else 0
+        position_pct = h.get("position_pct", mv / total_mv * 100 if total_mv > 0 else 0)
+        currency = h.get("currency", "CNY")
+        is_hk = len(str(code)) == 5 and str(code)[0] in ("0", "1")
+        
+        # 只评估亏损股（含微亏）
+        if pnl_pct >= 0:
+            continue
+        
+        # ── 可替代性评分（0~100，越高越建议优先替换） ──
+        # ① 亏损程度（越低越容易割，权重25%）
+        abs_loss = abs(pnl_pct)
+        loss_score = max(0, 100 - (abs_loss - 5) * 1.33)  # -5%→100, -20%→80, -50%→40, -80%→0
+        
+        # ② 仓位市值（越大释放资金越多，权重20%）
+        mv_pct = position_pct
+        size_score = min(100, mv_pct * 5)  # 5%仓位→25分, 20%→100分
+        
+        # ③ 技术面趋势（权重25%）- 从 DB 取趋势判断
+        trend_score = 50  # 默认中性
+        try:
+            conn = get_conn()
+            r = conn.execute(
+                "SELECT timing_signal FROM holding_strategies WHERE code=? AND status='active' ORDER BY updated_at DESC LIMIT 1",
+                (code,)
+            ).fetchone()
+            conn.close()
+            if r:
+                sig = r[0] or ""
+                if any(kw in sig for kw in ["卖出", "止损", "离场", "看空"]):
+                    trend_score = 90
+                elif any(kw in sig for kw in ["买入", "加仓", "看多", "走强"]):
+                    trend_score = 10
+                elif any(kw in sig for kw in ["观望", "信号不充分", "中性"]):
+                    trend_score = 60
+        except:
+            pass
+        
+        # ④ 流动性（权重15%）- H股略打折扣
+        liquidity_score = 60 if is_hk else 80
+        
+        # ⑤ 综合评分
+        total_score = (
+            loss_score * 0.25 +
+            size_score * 0.20 +
+            trend_score * 0.25 +
+            liquidity_score * 0.15 +
+            50 * 0.15  # 前景占15%，暂给中性50分
+        )
+        
+        scored.append({
+            "code": code, "name": name,
+            "price": price, "pnl_pct": round(pnl_pct, 1),
+            "mv": mv, "mv_pct": round(mv_pct, 1),
+            "score": round(total_score, 1),
+            "currency": currency,
+            "loss_score": round(loss_score, 0),
+            "trend_score": round(trend_score, 0),
+            "shares": shares,
+        })
+    
+    if not scored:
+        print("当前无亏损持仓，无需调仓规划")
+        return
+    
+    # 按评分降序排列（越高越优先替换）
+    scored.sort(key=lambda s: -s["score"])
+    
+    print(f"{'优先级':>4} {'代码':<8} {'名称':<14} {'亏损':>6} {'市值':>10} {'占比':>5} {'评分':>4}  理由")
+    print("-" * 90)
+    
+    total_releasable = 0
+    for i, s in enumerate(scored, 1):
+        currency_tag = "HK$" if s["currency"] == "HKD" else "CNY"
+        reasons = []
+        if s["loss_score"] >= 70:
+            reasons.append("亏损较浅易割")
+        elif s["loss_score"] <= 30:
+            reasons.append("亏损较深可等反弹")
+        if s["trend_score"] >= 70:
+            reasons.append("技术弱势")
+        elif s["trend_score"] <= 30:
+            reasons.append("技术尚可")
+        if s["mv_pct"] >= 10:
+            reasons.append("仓位较重释放资金多")
+        reason_str = "、".join(reasons[:2]) if reasons else "中性"
+        
+        print(f"  #{i:<2} {s['code']:<8} {s['name']:<12} {s['pnl_pct']:>5.1f}% {currency_tag}{s['mv']:>8,.0f} {s['mv_pct']:>4.1f}% {s['score']:>4.1f}  {reason_str}")
+        
+        if need_cash > 0 and total_releasable < need_cash:
+            total_releasable += s["mv"]
+            if total_releasable >= need_cash:
+                print(f"\n  ▶ 卖出前{i}只可释放 {currency_tag}{total_releasable:,.0f}（目标{need_cash:,.0f}）")
+    
+    print()
+    print("说明：评分越高 = 越优先考虑替换。综合亏损程度/仓位/技术趋势/流动性。")
+    print("评分仅供参考，最终决策请结合当日行情和个人判断。")
+    print(f"\n若需模拟换股方案执行: python3 {__file__} swap-plan --need 金额")
+
+
 if __name__ == "__main__":
-    regenerate_all()
+    import sys
+    if len(sys.argv) > 1 and sys.argv[1] == "swap-plan":
+        need = 0
+        for i, a in enumerate(sys.argv):
+            if a == "--need" and i + 1 < len(sys.argv):
+                try:
+                    need = float(sys.argv[i + 1])
+                except:
+                    pass
+        print_swap_plan(need)
+    else:
+        regenerate_all()