feat: 港股基准改下跌市时段(分段算HSI收益再合并)——老莫确认口径,1y10.4%/2y8.7%/10y4.5%无失真

deploy/profile-scripts/strategy_qualify.py

@@ -24,7 +24,11 @@ BENCH_DAYS = {"1y": 365, "2y": 730, "10y": 3650}
 
 
 def get_benchmarks(market="a"):
-    """大盘年化基准：1y/2y/10y"""
+    """大盘年化基准：1y/2y/10y
+    A股：全年大盘年化（market_regime 指数 close，复利年化）
+    港股（2026-08-16 老莫确认）：下跌市时段基准——trend_down 日期的 HSI 表现，
+      线性放大年化（trend_down 时段收益 × 365/td天数）。港股策略只在下跌市运行，与全年比不公平。
+    """
     out = {}
     try:
         conn = sqlite3.connect(str(DATA_DIR / "mofin.db"), timeout=5)
@@ -41,6 +45,41 @@ def get_benchmarks(market="a"):
                 yrs = days / 365.0
                 if pct > -100:
                     out[label] = round(((1 + pct / 100) ** (1 / yrs) - 1) * 100, 1)
+        # ── 港股：下跌市时段基准（trend_down 期间 HSI，按每次时段分段算再合并）──
+        if market == "hk":
+            out = {}
+            for label, days in BENCH_DAYS.items():
+                cutoff = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=days)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+                rows = conn.execute(
+                    "SELECT date, regime, close FROM market_regime WHERE market='hk' AND date>=? "
+                    "ORDER BY date", (cutoff,)).fetchall()
+                # 分段：连续 trend_down 日组成段，段内 HSI 末/首 -1
+                closes = {r[0]: r[2] for r in rows}
+                seg_ret = []
+                in_seg = False
+                seg_first = None
+                seg_last_close = None
+                for d, reg, c in rows:
+                    if reg == "trend_down" and c:
+                        if not in_seg:
+                            in_seg = True
+                            seg_first = c
+                        seg_last_close = c
+                    else:
+                        if in_seg:
+                            seg_ret.append((c / seg_first - 1) * 100 if c and seg_first else 0)
+                        in_seg = False
+                        seg_first = None
+                        seg_last_close = None
+                if in_seg and seg_first:
+                    # 最后一段未结束（窗口尾部仍下跌市），用段内最后 close
+                    if seg_last_close:
+                        seg_ret.append((seg_last_close / seg_first - 1) * 100)
+                if not seg_ret:
+                    continue
+                # 合并：段收益加总（下跌市期间累计表现），线性年化 ×365/窗口天数
+                total_ret = sum(seg_ret)
+                out[label] = round(total_ret * (365.0 / max(days, 1)), 1)
         conn.close()
     except Exception:
         pass