diff --git a/deploy/profile-scripts/batch_reassess.py b/deploy/profile-scripts/batch_reassess.py
index 39f479a3..a0af392a 100644
--- a/deploy/profile-scripts/batch_reassess.py
+++ b/deploy/profile-scripts/batch_reassess.py
@@ -412,6 +412,51 @@ def build_prompt(data):
         except Exception:
             pass
     _position_context += _rotation_context
+    # 2026-08-18 换仓决策注入（老莫：需要资金时对比预期收益，卖E_hold最低的）
+    # 触发：本票信号为买入/加仓 + 现金不足（cash < 建议仓位金额估算）
+    try:
+        from swap_decision import decide_swap, format_swap_advice, get_strategy_expected
+        _sig_now = data.get("timing_signal") or ""
+        _need_fund = _sig_now in ("买入", "可买入", "可加仓")
+        if _need_fund:
+            # 估算本票建议仓位金额（按 RR 5%-15%，取中 10%）
+            _est_need = total * 0.10
+            if cash < _est_need:
+                # 拉当前持仓（深套判定：cost vs price）
+                try:
+                    import sqlite3 as _sq3
+                    _c3 = _sq3.connect(DB, timeout=30)
+                    _c3.row_factory = _sq3.Row
+                    _holds = _c3.execute("SELECT code, name, shares, cost, price FROM holdings WHERE is_active=1 AND shares>0").fetchall()
+                    _c3.close()
+                    _hold_list = []
+                    for _h in _holds:
+                        _cost_v = _h["cost"] or 0; _price_v = _h["price"] or 0
+                        _pnl_v = (_price_v - _cost_v) / _cost_v * 100 if _cost_v > 0 and _price_v > 0 else None
+                        # 查该持仓的 strategy_name
+                        _sn = ""
+                        try:
+                            _c4 = _sq3.connect(DB, timeout=30)
+                            _sn_r = _c4.execute("SELECT strategy_name FROM holding_strategies WHERE code=? AND status='active'", (_h["code"],)).fetchone()
+                            _c4.close()
+                            _sn = _sn_r[0] if _sn_r else ""
+                        except Exception:
+                            pass
+                        _hold_list.append({
+                            "code": _h["code"], "name": _h["name"] or _h["code"],
+                            "cost": _cost_v, "price": _price_v, "shares": _h["shares"] or 0,
+                            "strategy_name": _sn, "pnl_pct": _pnl_v,
+                        })
+                    _sd = data.get("strategy_name") or data.get("strategy_attributed") or ""
+                    _dec = decide_swap(need_cash=_est_need - cash, holdings=_hold_list,
+                                       new_strategy=_sd, market="a")
+                    _swap_advice = format_swap_advice(_dec)
+                    _position_context += f"\n\n{_swap_advice}\n⚠️ 若你给出买入建议但现金不足，以上为系统算好的换仓方案（卖预期收益最低的持仓凑钱）；你只需确认是否采纳（可结合消息面/基本面修正），不要重新设计换仓逻辑。"
+                    print(f"  [SWAP] 换仓决策已注入: {_dec.get('reason', '')[:80]}", flush=True)
+                except Exception as _se:
+                    print(f"  [SWAP] 换仓决策注入失败: {_se}", flush=True)
+    except Exception:
+        pass
     
     # ── 策略语义注入（2026-08-18 老莫：重评按策略定义，不是裸标签）──
     _sd = data.get("strategy_def")
diff --git a/deploy/profile-scripts/swap_decision.py b/deploy/profile-scripts/swap_decision.py
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..39774491
--- /dev/null
+++ b/deploy/profile-scripts/swap_decision.py
@@ -0,0 +1,184 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
+"""swap_decision.py — 换仓决策模块（2026-08-18 老莫：资金腾挪时对比预期收益取最低者卖）
+核心：需要资金买入新票时，对比【新票预期收益 E_new】vs【持仓不卖预期收益 E_hold】，
+按 E_hold 升序选票卖出凑钱（卖预期收益最低的）。能代码算的尽量代码算，LLM 只做定性修正。
+
+数据依据（10y 回测实测，2026-08-18 验证）：
+  E_hold 查表（深套等到底均收益）:
+    -20~-25%: -3.8% (30d恢复76% 60d85% 120d92%)
+    -25~-30%: -3.7% (30d55% 60d72% 120d85%)
+    -30~-40%: -2.9% (30d29% 60d38% 120d65%)
+    -40%以下: -0.3% (30d18% 60d21% 120d48%)
+  E_new 查表（策略avg_pnl，strategy_regime_perf_by_period 温区级优先，fallback 10y整体）:
+    v_weak: +3.34% | b_td1_v3: +8.01% | s2_panic: +16.61% | v_next/v8.1: +9.39%
+  安全边际: E_new - E_hold >= 2%（覆盖双边交易成本~0.4% + 新票亏损风险）
+"""
+import sqlite3, json
+
+DB = "/home/hmo/MoFin/data/mofin.db"
+SAFE_MARGIN = 2.0  # 换仓安全边际（%）
+
+# 深套深度 → E_hold（等到底均收益%）— 2026-08-18 10y回测实测
+E_HOLD_TABLE = [
+    # (dd_min, dd_max, e_hold_pct, note)
+    (-100, -40, -0.3, "深套>40%：弹回概率极低，等到底期望≈-0.3%"),
+    (-40, -30, -2.9, "深套30-40%：120天仅65%恢复，期望-2.9%"),
+    (-30, -25, -3.7, "深套25-30%：60天72%恢复，期望-3.7%"),
+    (-25, -20, -3.8, "深套20-25%：30天76%恢复，期望-3.8%"),
+]
+
+def _get_conn():
+    conn = sqlite3.connect(DB, timeout=30)
+    conn.execute("PRAGMA busy_timeout=30000")
+    return conn
+
+def get_current_regime(market="a"):
+    """当前温区"""
+    try:
+        conn = _get_conn()
+        r = conn.execute("SELECT regime FROM market_regime WHERE market=? ORDER BY date DESC LIMIT 1", (market,)).fetchone()
+        conn.close()
+        return r[0] if r else "unknown"
+    except Exception:
+        return "unknown"
+
+def get_strategy_expected(strategy, market="a", regime=None):
+    """E_new：策略预期单笔收益。温区级优先（strategy_regime_perf_by_period），fallback 10y整体（strategy_research）。
+    返回 (avg_pnl, source_desc)"""
+    conn = _get_conn()
+    try:
+        # 温区级优先
+        if regime and regime != "unknown":
+            r = conn.execute(
+                "SELECT avg_pnl, trades FROM strategy_regime_perf_by_period "
+                "WHERE strategy=? AND market=? AND regime=? AND period_tag='2y'",
+                (strategy, market, regime)).fetchone()
+            if r and r[0] is not None and r[1] and r[1] >= 5:
+                conn.close()
+                return (float(r[0]), f"温区{regime}2y({r[1]}笔)")
+        # fallback 10y 整体
+        r2 = conn.execute(
+            "SELECT results_json FROM strategy_research WHERE version=? AND COALESCE(market,'a')=? AND period_tag='10y' "
+            "ORDER BY id DESC LIMIT 1", (strategy, market)).fetchone()
+        if r2 and r2[0]:
+            trades = json.loads(r2[0]).get("trades", [])
+            if trades:
+                avg = sum(t.get("profit_pct", 0) for t in trades) / len(trades)
+                conn.close()
+                return (round(avg, 2), f"10y整体({len(trades)}笔)")
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+    conn.close()
+    return (0.0, "无数据")
+
+def get_hold_expected(dd_pct):
+    """E_hold：深套持仓等到底期望。按深套深度查表。非深套（dd>-20）返回 None（不算深套）。"""
+    if dd_pct is None or dd_pct > -20:
+        return None
+    for lo, hi, e_hold, note in E_HOLD_TABLE:
+        if lo <= dd_pct < hi:
+            return {"e_hold": e_hold, "note": note, "dd": round(dd_pct, 1)}
+    return {"e_hold": E_HOLD_TABLE[-1][2], "note": E_HOLD_TABLE[-1][3], "dd": round(dd_pct, 1)}
+
+def compute_hold_pnl(cost, price):
+    """持仓浮盈%（成本 vs 现价）"""
+    if not cost or not price:
+        return None
+    return (price - cost) / cost * 100
+
+def decide_swap(need_cash, holdings, new_strategy, new_expected=None, market="a", regime=None):
+    """核心换仓决策。
+    need_cash: 需要腾出的资金（元）
+    holdings: [{code, name, cost, price, shares, strategy_name, dd_pct(深套深度，可选), pnl_pct}]
+    new_strategy: 新标的的策略名
+    new_expected: 新标的预期收益（外部已算），None 则查表
+    返回: {decided, sell_list, need_cash, raised, reason, e_new, e_new_src}
+    """
+    regime = regime or get_current_regime(market)
+    # E_new
+    if new_expected is None:
+        e_new, e_new_src = get_strategy_expected(new_strategy, market, regime)
+    else:
+        e_new, e_new_src = new_expected, "外部提供"
+
+    # 每只持仓算 E_hold
+    scored = []
+    for h in holdings:
+        code = h.get("code", "")
+        name = h.get("name", code)
+        cost = h.get("cost") or 0
+        price = h.get("price") or 0
+        shares = h.get("shares") or 0
+        market_val = price * shares if price and shares else 0
+        # 深套判定：优先用外部给的 dd_pct，否则用浮盈算（-20% 以下 = 深套）
+        dd = h.get("dd_pct")
+        pnl = h.get("pnl_pct")
+        if dd is None and pnl is None and cost and price:
+            pnl = compute_hold_pnl(cost, price)
+        if dd is None:
+            dd = pnl  # 浮盈为负即深套深度近似
+        eh = get_hold_expected(dd) if (dd is not None and dd <= -20) else None
+        # 非深套持仓：E_hold = 其自身策略的预期（继续持有的期望）
+        h_strategy = h.get("strategy_name") or ""
+        if eh is None:
+            e_self, src_self = get_strategy_expected(h_strategy, market, regime) if h_strategy else (0.0, "无策略")
+            eh = {"e_hold": e_self, "note": f"非深套，按原策略{h_strategy or 'unknown'}期望", "dd": None}
+        scored.append({
+            "code": code, "name": name, "market_val": market_val,
+            "e_hold": eh["e_hold"], "note": eh["note"], "dd": eh["dd"],
+            "pnl": pnl,
+        })
+    # 按 E_hold 升序（最低优先卖）
+    scored.sort(key=lambda x: x["e_hold"])
+    # 累加凑钱
+    sell_list = []
+    raised = 0.0
+    for s in scored:
+        if raised >= need_cash:
+            break
+        if s["market_val"] <= 0:
+            continue
+        sell_list.append(s)
+        raised += s["market_val"]
+    # 决策
+    if not sell_list:
+        return {"decided": False, "reason": "无可卖持仓", "sell_list": [], "raised": 0, "e_new": e_new}
+    # 安全边际：被卖的最后一只 E_hold vs E_new
+    last_ehold = sell_list[-1]["e_hold"]
+    margin = e_new - last_ehold
+    if margin >= SAFE_MARGIN:
+        decided = True
+        reason = (f"换仓: 新票({new_strategy})E={e_new:.1f}%[{e_new_src}] "
+                  f"vs 被卖最后一只E={last_ehold:.1f}%({sell_list[-1]['name']}), 边际{margin:.1f}%≥{SAFE_MARGIN}%")
+    else:
+        decided = False
+        reason = (f"不换: 新票({new_strategy})E={e_new:.1f}% vs 最低E={last_ehold:.1f}%, "
+                  f"边际{margin:.1f}%<{SAFE_MARGIN}%（不划算）")
+    return {
+        "decided": decided, "reason": reason,
+        "sell_list": sell_list, "raised": round(raised, 0),
+        "need_cash": need_cash, "e_new": e_new, "e_new_src": e_new_src,
+        "margin": round(margin, 1), "regime": regime,
+    }
+
+def format_swap_advice(decision):
+    """格式化换仓建议（供 LLM prompt 注入 / XMPP 推送）"""
+    if not decision.get("decided"):
+        return f"【换仓决策】{decision.get('reason')}"
+    lines = [f"【换仓决策】{decision.get('reason')}"]
+    lines.append(f"  需资金 {decision.get('need_cash',0):.0f}元，卖出 {len(decision['sell_list'])} 只（共{decision.get('raised',0):.0f}元）:")
+    for s in decision["sell_list"]:
+        lines.append(f"    - {s['code']} {s['name']}: E_hold={s['e_hold']:.1f}% {s['note']}")
+    return "\n".join(lines)
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    # 自测
+    holdings = [
+        {"code": "000850", "name": "华茂", "cost": 3.84, "price": 4.14, "shares": 30600, "strategy_name": ""},
+        {"code": "688775", "name": "影石", "cost": 130, "price": 126.27, "shares": 100, "strategy_name": "accumulation"},
+        {"code": "300750", "name": "宁德", "cost": 500, "price": 393, "shares": 100, "strategy_name": ""},
+    ]
+    d = decide_swap(need_cash=100000, holdings=holdings, new_strategy="b_td1_v3", market="a")
+    print(format_swap_advice(d))
+    print(json.dumps(d, ensure_ascii=False, indent=1)[:800])