diff --git a/scripts/research/step49_save_to_research.py b/scripts/research/step49_save_to_research.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..70ee9268 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/research/step49_save_to_research.py @@ -0,0 +1,270 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""step49_save_to_research.py — 复现 v5 定稿(年化18.57%)并保存到 strategy_research +在 step49_final_v5.py 基础上:记录逐笔 trades + 保存 results_json(研究Tab 展示) +输出:strategy_research 表 version='v_oversold' period_tag='10y' +""" +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +import sqlite3 +import sys, json +from datetime import datetime + +sys.path.insert(0, "/tmp") +sys.path.insert(0, "/home/hmo/MoFin") +from sr_calculator import SRCalculator +import strategy_lab as lab + +print("=== 加载面板 ===", flush=True) +panel = pd.read_pickle("/tmp/panel_12d.pkl") +panel = panel.sort_values(["code", "date"]).reset_index(drop=True) +panel["_key"] = panel["code"] + "_" + panel["date"] +pos_map = {k: i for i, k in enumerate(panel["_key"])} +dates = sorted(panel["date"].unique()) + +# 大盘指标(mkt_dd60 + mkt_down_days) +conn = sqlite3.connect("file:/home/hmo/MoFin/data/mofin.db?mode=ro", uri=True) +idx_df = pd.read_sql("SELECT date, close, high FROM stock_daily WHERE code='sh000001' ORDER BY date", conn) +idx_df["date"] = idx_df["date"].astype(str) +idx_df["hi60"] = idx_df["high"].rolling(60).max() +idx_df["mkt_dd60"] = (idx_df["close"] / idx_df["hi60"] - 1) * 100 +close_arr = idx_df["close"].values +down_days, streak, prev = [], 0, None +for c in close_arr: + streak = streak + 1 if (prev is not None and c < prev) else 0 + down_days.append(streak) + prev = c +idx_df["mkt_down_days"] = down_days +dd_map = dict(zip(idx_df["date"], idx_df["mkt_dd60"])) +down_map = dict(zip(idx_df["date"], idx_df["mkt_down_days"])) +panel["mkt_dd60"] = panel["date"].map(dd_map) +panel["mkt_down_days"] = panel["date"].map(down_map) + +# 信号(v5 定稿条件) +sig_cond = ( + (panel["mkt_rsi"] < 50) & (panel["mcap_q"] < 0.2) & (panel["pe_q"] < 0.2) & + (panel["news3"] >= 1) & (panel["sec_ret20"] < 0) & (panel["bias60"] < -20) & + (panel["mkt_dd60"] <= -5) +) +yin_die = (panel["mkt_down_days"] >= 2) & (panel["mkt_adx"] <= 55) & (panel["mkt_rsi"] >= 33) +final_cond = sig_cond & ~yin_die + +print("基础信号:", sig_cond.sum(), "| 阴跌跳过:", (sig_cond & yin_die).sum(), "| 最终:", final_cond.sum(), flush=True) + +def build_cand(cond): + cand = panel[cond][["code", "date"]].copy() + cand = cand.sort_values(["code", "date"]) + cand["prev"] = cand.groupby("code")["date"].shift(1) + cand["gap"] = (pd.to_datetime(cand["date"]) - pd.to_datetime(cand["prev"])).dt.days + cand = cand[(cand["prev"].isna()) | (cand["gap"] > 30)] + return cand + +def prep(sigdf): + codes = sigdf["code"].unique().tolist() + ph = ",".join("?" * len(codes)) + df = pd.read_sql("SELECT code, date, close, high, low FROM stock_daily WHERE code IN ({}) ORDER BY code, date".format(ph), conn, params=codes) + df["date"] = df["date"].astype(str) + df["code"] = df["code"].astype(str).str.zfill(6) + df = df.sort_values(["code", "date"]).reset_index(drop=True) + df["_key"] = df["code"] + "_" + df["date"] + dpos = {k: i for i, k in enumerate(df["_key"])} + sigdf["kidx"] = (sigdf["code"] + "_" + sigdf["date"]).map(dpos) + sigdf = sigdf.dropna(subset=["kidx"]).copy() + sigdf["kidx"] = sigdf["kidx"].astype(int) + sr = SRCalculator() + out = [] + for r in sigdf.itertuples(): + bars_code = sr.get_bars(r.code) + d_idx = bars_code.index[bars_code["date"] == r.date] + if len(d_idx) == 0: + continue + sr_full = sr.sr_full(r.code, d_idx[0]) + pv = sr_full["pivot"] + chip = sr_full["chip"] + if not pv: + continue + sig_close = df["close"].values[r.kidx] + support = pv["s2"] + if chip and chip["chip_ss"] < sig_close: + support = max(pv["s2"], chip["chip_ss"]) + resist = pv["r2"] + if chip and chip["chip_sr"] > sig_close: + resist = min(pv["r2"], chip["chip_sr"]) + if support >= sig_close or resist <= sig_close: + continue + out.append({"code": r.code, "date": r.date, "kidx": r.kidx, + "sig_close": sig_close, "support": support, "resist": resist}) + return pd.DataFrame(out), df + +def run_sim(sigdf, df, max_daily=5, slots=10, hold=40, pos_frac=0.15, stop_buf=0.05): + """同 step49 run_sim,但记录逐笔 trades""" + dpos = {k: i for i, k in enumerate(df["_key"])} + closes = df["close"].values + highs = df["high"].values + lows = df["low"].values + sig_by_date = {} + for r in sigdf.itertuples(): + sig_by_date.setdefault(r.date, []).append(r) + INIT_CAP = 1_000_000 + positions = {} + cash = INIT_CAP + navs = [] + trades = [] + for di, d in enumerate(dates): + for code in list(positions.keys()): + pos = positions[code] + k = dpos.get(code + "_" + d) + if k is None: + continue + hi, lo, cl = highs[k], lows[k], closes[k] + exited = False + if hi >= pos["tp"]: + sell_qty = pos["qty"] // 2 + if sell_qty > 0: + cash += sell_qty * pos["tp"] + pos["qty"] -= sell_qty + pos["sold_parts"].append({"pct": sell_qty / pos["init_qty"], "price": pos["tp"]}) + if pos["qty"] <= 0: + del positions[code] + exited = True + if not exited and lo <= pos["stop"]: + cash += pos["qty"] * lo + pos["exit_price"] = lo + pos["exit_reason"] = "stop" + pos["exit_date"] = d + pos["hold_days"] = di - pos["entry_di"] + trades.append(pos) + del positions[code] + exited = True + if not exited and di - pos["entry_di"] >= hold: + cash += pos["qty"] * cl + pos["exit_price"] = cl + pos["exit_reason"] = "time" + pos["exit_date"] = d + pos["hold_days"] = di - pos["entry_di"] + trades.append(pos) + del positions[code] + if d in sig_by_date: + bought = 0 + for r in sig_by_date[d]: + if bought >= max_daily or len(positions) >= slots: + break + if r.code in positions: + continue + cur_nav = cash + for c, p in positions.items(): + k = dpos.get(c + "_" + d) + px = closes[k] if k is not None else p["avg_cost"] + cur_nav += p["qty"] * px + pos_val = cur_nav * pos_frac + price = r.sig_close + if price <= 0: + continue + qty = int(pos_val / price) + if qty <= 0 or qty * price > cash: + continue + cash -= qty * price + positions[r.code] = { + "code": r.code, "entry_date": r.date, "entry_price": price, + "entry_di": di, "qty": qty, "init_qty": qty, "avg_cost": price, + "stop": r.support * (1 - stop_buf), "tp": r.resist, + "support": r.support, "resist": r.resist, + "sold_parts": [], "exit_price": None, "exit_reason": None, + "exit_date": None, "hold_days": None, + } + bought += 1 + nav = cash + for c, p in positions.items(): + k = dpos.get(c + "_" + d) + px = closes[k] if k is not None else p["avg_cost"] + nav += p["qty"] * px + navs.append(nav) + # 收盘时未平仓的强制平仓 + for code in list(positions.keys()): + pos = positions[code] + k = dpos.get(code + "_" + dates[-1]) + px = closes[k] if k is not None else pos["avg_cost"] + pos["exit_price"] = px + pos["exit_reason"] = "end" + pos["exit_date"] = dates[-1] + pos["hold_days"] = len(dates) - 1 - pos["entry_di"] + trades.append(pos) + nav_arr = np.array(navs) + final = nav_arr[-1] + years = len(navs) / 250 + cagr = ((final / INIT_CAP) ** (1 / years) - 1) * 100 if final > 0 else -100 + cummax = np.maximum.accumulate(nav_arr) + dd = ((nav_arr - cummax) / cummax).min() * 100 + return cagr, dd, nav_arr, trades + +# ── 支持 period_tag 参数(10y/5y/2y)── +PERIOD_TAG = sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else '10y' +PERIODS = { + '10y': ('2016-07-01', '2026-07-24'), + '5y': ('2021-07-01', '2026-07-24'), + '2y': ('2024-07-01', '2026-07-24'), +} +BT_START, BT_END = PERIODS.get(PERIOD_TAG, PERIODS['10y']) +print(f"=== v5 定稿(阴跌判定+限流5)复现 + 保存 [{PERIOD_TAG}] {BT_START}~{BT_END} ===", flush=True) +# 按回测窗口过滤信号(同股30日去重保持) +bt_mask = (panel["date"] >= BT_START) & (panel["date"] <= BT_END) +s1, df1 = prep(build_cand(final_cond & bt_mask)) +# run_sim 里 dates 也要限窗口 +dates = sorted(d for d in dates if BT_START <= d <= BT_END) +c1, d1, nav1, trades = run_sim(s1, df1) +print("年化={:.2f}% 回撤={:.1f}% 信号={} trades={}".format(c1, d1, len(s1), len(trades)), flush=True) + +# 构造 result dict(对齐 run_mr_backtest 的 result 格式) +trade_list = [] +for t in trades: + profit_pct = (t["exit_price"] / t["entry_price"] - 1) * 100 if t["entry_price"] > 0 else 0 + trade_list.append({ + "code": t["code"], "name": t["code"], + "entry_date": t["entry_date"], "entry_price": round(t["entry_price"], 2), + "exit_price": round(t["exit_price"], 2), "profit_pct": round(profit_pct, 2), + "exit_reason": t["exit_reason"], "hold_days": t["hold_days"], + "score": 0, "score_comp": {}, "kelly": 0, + "stop_loss": round(t["stop"], 2), "target": round(t["tp"], 2), + "dna": False, + "factors": {"bias60": None, "mkt_rsi": None, "mcap_q": None, "pe_q": None, + "news3": None, "sec_ret20": None, "support": round(t["support"], 2), + "resist": round(t["resist"], 2)}, + }) + +wins = [t for t in trade_list if t["profit_pct"] > 0] +losses = [t for t in trade_list if t["profit_pct"] <= 0] +summary = { + "total_trades": len(trade_list), + "win_rate": round(len(wins) / len(trade_list) * 100, 1) if trade_list else 0, + "avg_profit_pct": round(sum(t["profit_pct"] for t in trade_list) / len(trade_list), 2) if trade_list else 0, + "avg_win_pct": round(sum(t["profit_pct"] for t in wins) / len(wins), 2) if wins else 0, + "avg_loss_pct": round(sum(t["profit_pct"] for t in losses) / len(losses), 2) if losses else 0, + "avg_hold_days": round(sum(t["hold_days"] or 0 for t in trade_list) / len(trade_list), 1) if trade_list else 0, + "wins": len(wins), "losses": len(losses), + "portfolio": {"cagr_pct": round(c1, 1), "total_return_pct": round((nav1[-1] / 1000000 - 1) * 100, 1), + "portfolio_max_dd_pct": round(abs(d1), 1)}, + "portfolio_full": {"cagr_pct": round(c1, 1), "total_return_pct": round((nav1[-1] / 1000000 - 1) * 100, 1), + "portfolio_max_dd_pct": round(abs(d1), 1)}, +} +print("summary:", json.dumps(summary, ensure_ascii=False), flush=True) + +# 保存到 strategy_research(先删旧的同版本同周期记录) +strat = lab.STRATEGIES["v_oversold"] +result = { + "strategy": "v_oversold", + "strategy_name": strat["name"], + "market": "a", + "period": f"{BT_START} ~ {BT_END}", + "period_tag": PERIOD_TAG, + "capital": 1000000, + "total_stocks_screened": len(df1["code"].unique()), + "scored_events": len(trade_list), + "trades": trade_list, + "summary": summary, +} +conn2 = sqlite3.connect("/home/hmo/MoFin/data/mofin.db") +conn2.execute("DELETE FROM strategy_research WHERE version='v_oversold' AND period_tag=?", (PERIOD_TAG,)) +conn2.commit() +conn2.close() +lab.save_result(strat, result) +print(f"已保存 v_oversold {PERIOD_TAG} 到 strategy_research", flush=True) +print("=== 完成 ===", flush=True)