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换仓评估修复：沉没成本不参与决策

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之前逻辑：expected_gain > locked_loss * 1.5 → 沉没成本谬误
错的：把已发生的亏损当成了交易成本

修复后：
1. 已亏损是沉没成本，卖不卖都已损失，不参与决策
2. 只比较持有 old 票的未来预期 vs 换到 new 票的未来预期
3. 深套票(<-15%)默认=死钱，继续持有预期≈-5%~0%
4. 目标票(RR>=3+买入信号)才有换仓资格
5. 最多卖2只、不超过总资产50%
6. 优先选亏损比例小、市值大的（效率高）

输出示例（已实测）：
  换仓建议：卖双一科技(亏-15.9%)；阿里(亏-21.7%)→腾69k→买海博思创1手(53k)
  理由：已深套，回本需涨19~28%不现实，死钱换有信号票，止损-3%可控，+17%空间明确
This commit is contained in:
知微
2026-06-24 11:48:27 +08:00
parent 92815aac06
commit 68e530a4be
3 changed files with 135 additions and 96 deletions
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data/decisions.json
+43 -43
View File
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