换仓评估修复:沉没成本不参与决策
之前逻辑:expected_gain > locked_loss * 1.5 → 沉没成本谬误 错的:把已发生的亏损当成了交易成本 修复后: 1. 已亏损是沉没成本,卖不卖都已损失,不参与决策 2. 只比较持有 old 票的未来预期 vs 换到 new 票的未来预期 3. 深套票(<-15%)默认=死钱,继续持有预期≈-5%~0% 4. 目标票(RR>=3+买入信号)才有换仓资格 5. 最多卖2只、不超过总资产50% 6. 优先选亏损比例小、市值大的(效率高) 输出示例(已实测): 换仓建议:卖双一科技(亏-15.9%);阿里(亏-21.7%)→腾69k→买海博思创1手(53k) 理由:已深套,回本需涨19~28%不现实,死钱换有信号票,止损-3%可控,+17%空间明确
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-22
@@ -54,8 +54,8 @@
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"action_note": "深套持有",
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"timing_signal": "持有"
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},
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"price": 7.59,
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"change_pct": -3.68
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"price": 7.66,
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"change_pct": -2.79
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},
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{
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"code": "600739",
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@@ -167,8 +167,8 @@
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"action_note": "深套持有",
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"timing_signal": "持有"
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},
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"price": 98.3,
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"change_pct": -0.66
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"price": 98.85,
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"change_pct": -0.1
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},
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{
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"code": "603259",
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@@ -252,8 +252,8 @@
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"action_note": "短炒强趋势持",
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"timing_signal": "持有"
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},
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"price": 95.6,
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"change_pct": 9.57
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"price": 96.3,
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"change_pct": 10.37
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},
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{
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"code": "02202",
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@@ -281,8 +281,8 @@
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"action_note": "深套持有",
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"timing_signal": "持有"
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},
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"price": 2.35,
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"change_pct": -2.08
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"price": 2.37,
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"change_pct": -1.25
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},
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{
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"code": "02388",
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@@ -310,8 +310,8 @@
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"action_note": "",
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"timing_signal": "持有"
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},
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"price": 46.16,
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"change_pct": -1.79
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"price": 46.26,
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"change_pct": -1.57
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},
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{
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"code": "300750",
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@@ -367,8 +367,8 @@
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"action_note": "深套持有",
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"timing_signal": "持有"
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},
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"price": 74.45,
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"change_pct": -1.85
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"price": 74.8,
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"change_pct": -1.38
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},
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{
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"code": "00700",
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@@ -396,8 +396,8 @@
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"action_note": "⚠️盈亏比偏低(1:1.0),不建议加仓",
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"timing_signal": "持有"
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},
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"price": 417.4,
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"change_pct": 0.63
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"price": 418.8,
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"change_pct": 0.82
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},
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{
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"code": "00981",
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@@ -425,8 +425,8 @@
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"action_note": "",
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"timing_signal": "持有"
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},
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"price": 84.15,
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"change_pct": 8.09
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"price": 85.05,
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"change_pct": 9.31
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},
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{
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"code": "09868",
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@@ -454,8 +454,8 @@
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"action_note": "⚠️盈亏比偏低(1:1.0),不建议加仓",
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"timing_signal": "持有"
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},
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"price": 49.58,
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"change_pct": 0.45
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"price": 50.0,
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"change_pct": 1.22
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},
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{
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"code": "600036",
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@@ -539,8 +539,8 @@
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"action_note": "⚠️盈亏比偏低(1:1.2),不建议加仓",
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"timing_signal": "持有"
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},
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"price": 52.5,
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"change_pct": -2.05
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"price": 52.75,
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"change_pct": -1.59
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},
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{
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"code": "300035",
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@@ -652,8 +652,8 @@
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"action_note": "⚠️盈亏比偏低(1:1.0),不建议加仓",
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"timing_signal": "持有"
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},
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"price": 41.76,
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"change_pct": -0.71
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"price": 41.84,
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"change_pct": -0.52
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},
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{
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"code": "600563",
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