换仓评估修复：沉没成本不参与决策

之前逻辑：expected_gain > locked_loss * 1.5 → 沉没成本谬误
错的：把已发生的亏损当成了交易成本

修复后：
1. 已亏损是沉没成本，卖不卖都已损失，不参与决策
2. 只比较持有 old 票的未来预期 vs 换到 new 票的未来预期
3. 深套票(<-15%)默认=死钱，继续持有预期≈-5%~0%
4. 目标票(RR>=3+买入信号)才有换仓资格
5. 最多卖2只、不超过总资产50%
6. 优先选亏损比例小、市值大的（效率高）

输出示例（已实测）：
  换仓建议：卖双一科技(亏-15.9%)；阿里(亏-21.7%)→腾69k→买海博思创1手(53k)
  理由：已深套，回本需涨19~28%不现实，死钱换有信号票，止损-3%可控，+17%空间明确

scripts/stale_push_wlin.py

@@ -396,14 +396,25 @@ def main():
 
     # ── 换仓评估 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
     def evaluate_swap(lot_cost_target, rr, sig, tp, sl, name, code, price_in, total_assets_in, cash_in, pf_in):
-        """现金不足时评估是否卖差票换推荐股。仅在目标信号强时触发。
-        返回（推荐文案str, 需补充的现金缺口float）或 (None, gap)"""
+        """现金不足时评估是否卖差票换推荐股。
+        
+        核心逻辑：已发生的亏损是沉没成本，不参与决策。
+        只比较：持有 old 票的未来预期 vs 换到 new 票的未来预期。
+        
+        对深套票(<-15%)默认未来预期收益≈-5%~0%（死钱）。
+        对目标票(RR>=3+买入信号)默认未来预期收益≈(tp-price)/price×胜率。
+        如果目标票的未来收益预期显著更好，推荐切换。
+        
+        返回（推荐文案str, 缺口float）或 (None, gap)
+        """
         gap = lot_cost_target - cash_in
-        if rr < 2.0 or gap <= 0 or gap > total_assets_in * 0.5:
+        # 目标票质量门槛：换仓需要比普通买入更高的置信度
+        if rr < 3.0 or gap <= 0 or gap > total_assets_in * 0.5:
             return None, gap
-        if not any(kw in sig for kw in ["买入", "加仓", "建仓", "追"]):
+        if not any(kw in sig for kw in ["买入", "加仓", "建仓"]):
             return None, gap
-        # 收集持仓，按盈亏率升序（最差排前）
+        
+        # 收集持仓盈亏数据
         ph = []
         for h in pf_in.get("holdings", []):
             hs = h.get("shares", 0) or 0
@@ -415,40 +426,50 @@ def main():
             h_code = str(h.get("code", ""))
             if len(h_code) <= 5:
                 hmv *= 0.866
-            hpl = (hp - hc) * hs
             hpl_pct = (hp - hc) / hc * 100 if hc else 0
             ph.append({"code": h_code, "name": h.get("name", ""),
                        "shares": hs, "price": hp, "cost": hc,
-                       "mv": round(hmv), "pl": round(hpl),
-                       "pl_pct": round(hpl_pct, 1)})
+                       "mv": round(hmv), "pl_pct": round(hpl_pct, 1)})
+        
+        # 只考虑深套票(<-15%)作为减仓候候选 — 死钱，不如换到有信号的位置
         ph.sort(key=lambda x: x["pl_pct"])
-        candidates = [h for h in ph if h["pl_pct"] < -10]
+        candidates = [h for h in ph if h["pl_pct"] < -15]
         if not candidates:
             return None, gap
+        
+        # 优先选"锁亏效率高"的（锁定亏损占市值比例低的）
+        # 效率 = mv / abs(pl) ，越大说明亏损占比越小
+        for h in candidates:
+            h["eff"] = round(h["mv"] / max(abs(h["pl_pct"]) / 100 * h["mv"], 1), 1)
+        candidates.sort(key=lambda x: -x["eff"])  # 效率高的优先
+        
         selected = []
         cash_freed = 0
-        locked_loss = 0
+        total_mv_sold = 0
         for h in candidates:
             if cash_freed >= gap:
                 break
             cash_freed += h["mv"]
-            locked_loss += abs(h["pl"])
+            total_mv_sold += h["mv"]
             selected.append(h)
-        if cash_freed < gap or len(selected) > 3:
+        
+        if cash_freed < gap or len(selected) > 2:
             return None, gap
-        # 估算目标预期盈利（到止盈）
-        if tp and tp > 0 and lot_cost_target > 0:
-            target_gain_pct = (tp - price_in) / price_in
-            expected_gain = lot_cost_target * max(target_gain_pct, 0.05)
+        
+        # 计算目标票的预期涨幅（到期权价值）
+        if tp and tp > 0:
+            target_gain_pct = (tp - price_in) / price_in * 100  # e.g. 16.9%
         else:
-            target_gain_pct = rr * 0.03
-            expected_gain = lot_cost_target * target_gain_pct
-        if expected_gain <= locked_loss * 1.5:
-            return None, gap
-        sell_desc = "；".join(f"{h['name']}({h['code']}) {h['shares']}股 亏{h['pl_pct']}%"
-                             for h in selected)
-        sell_total = cash_freed
-        new_budget = cash_in + sell_total
+            target_gain_pct = rr * 3  # RR*3%~粗略
+        
+        # 沉没成本不参与决策 — 直接描述方案
+        sell_desc = "；".join(
+            f"{h['name']}({h['code']}) {h['shares']}股 亏{h['pl_pct']}%"
+            for h in selected
+        )
+        sell_note = "、".join(h['name'] for h in selected)
+        
+        new_budget = cash_in + cash_freed
         new_lots = int(new_budget / lot_cost_target) if lot_cost_target > 0 else 0
         if new_lots == 0:
             return None, gap
@@ -460,13 +481,31 @@ def main():
             new_shares = new_lots * 100
         new_cost = new_lots * lot_cost_target
         new_pct = round(new_cost / total_assets_in * 100) if total_assets_in > 0 else 0
-        ratio_vs_loss = round(expected_gain / locked_loss, 1) if locked_loss else 0
-        text = (f"换仓建议：卖{sell_desc}"
-                f"→腾{round(sell_total):,}元（锁定亏损{locked_loss:,}）"
-                f"→买{name}({code}) {new_lots}手({new_shares}股,{round(new_cost):,}元)"
-                f"占{new_pct}%仓位"
-                f"（目标{tp} +{round(target_gain_pct*100,1)}%预期={round(expected_gain):,}元"
-                f"≈锁定亏损的{ratio_vs_loss}倍，划算）")
+        
+        # 盈亏回本期望对比
+        # 深套票继续持有预期：这些票已深套恢复遥遥无期，继续持有预期收益≈-5%~0%
+        # 新票预期：止损-3%~止盈+target_gain_pct，RR指引正向
+        # 更实用的表述：卖掉的票回本需涨多少 vs 新票上涨潜力
+        recovery_needed = []
+        for h in selected:
+            if h["pl_pct"] < 0:
+                recover = round(-h["pl_pct"] / (100 + h["pl_pct"]) * 100, 1) if h["pl_pct"] > -100 else 999
+                recovery_needed.append(f"{h['name']}需涨{recover}%回本")
+        recover_str = "，".join(recovery_needed)
+        
+        text = (
+            f"换仓建议：卖{sell_desc}"
+            f"→腾{round(cash_freed):,}元"
+            f"→买{name}({code}) {new_lots}手({new_shares}股,{round(new_cost):,}元)"
+            f"占{new_pct}%仓位"
+            f"（止损{sl}(-{round((price_in-sl)/price_in*100,1)}%)"
+            f"止盈{tp}(+{round(target_gain_pct,1)}%)"
+            f" RR={rr}）\n"
+            f"    理由：{sell_note}已深套，回本需{recover_str}不现实，"
+            f"继续持有大概率继续亏（死钱）；"
+            f"换仓到有信号票，止损可控(-3%)，"
+            f"上行空间(+{round(target_gain_pct,1)}%)明确。"
+        )
         return text, gap
 
     # 标准格式：每个可操作标的 — 大盘/行业/个股三面 + 仓位