信义光能问题修复：两层级过滤+趋势检查

Bug 1 — strategy_lifecycle.py: enrich_timing_signal 用 factors[-1] 当信号
  信义光能: base_signal=neutral, factors=[大盘中性,行业偏弱,高估值]
  旧逻辑: factors[-1]='行业偏弱'→成为timing_signal→无效信号
  新逻辑: 先找有效操作方向(买入/加仓/观望/持有/关注/信号不充分),
          找不到→信号不充分。不再从上下文因子里拼凑信号。

Bug 2 — stale_push_wlin.py: 信号过滤太松
  旧逻辑: 只跳过特定关键词(等企稳/关注/信号不充分/持有)
  新逻辑: 信号必须含"买入"或"加仓"才进推荐，其他一律跳过

Check 3 — 趋势检查(新增)
  fetch_trend_data(): 取实时行情+30日K线计算MA排列
  空头排列/弱势震荡→不推荐
  药明康德通过(多头排列+买入信号)  信义光能不通过(空头+行业偏弱)

scripts/stale_push_wlin.py

@@ -27,6 +27,72 @@ except ImportError:
 sys.path.insert(0, "/home/hmo/MoFin/scripts")
 from stock_scorer import score_future_outlook, is_hk_stock, settlement_delay_note
 
+# ── 趋势检查 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+def fetch_trend_data(code):
+    """取均线数据判断趋势状态。返回 (current_price, ma5, trend_label) 或 None"""
+    try:
+        prefix = "sh" if code.startswith(('60','68','51','56','50')) else "sz" if code.startswith(('00','30','15')) else "hk"
+        url = f"http://qt.gtimg.cn/q={prefix}{code}"
+        req = Request(url, headers={'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0'})
+        resp = urlopen(req, timeout=5).read().decode('gbk')
+        fld = resp.split('=')[1].strip().strip('"').strip(';').split('~')
+        current = float(fld[3]) if len(fld) > 3 else 0
+    except:
+        return None
+
+    try:
+        url = f"http://ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param={prefix}{code},day,,,30,qfq"
+        req = Request(url, headers={'User-Agent': 'Mozilla/5.0'})
+        resp = urlopen(req, timeout=5).read().decode('utf-8')
+        data = json.loads(resp)
+        day_key = 'qfqday' if prefix != 'hk' else 'day'
+        bars = data.get('data', {}).get(f'{prefix}{code}', {}).get(day_key, [])
+    except:
+        return None
+
+    if not bars or current <= 0:
+        return None
+    closes = [float(b[2]) for b in bars]
+    if len(closes) < 5:
+        return None
+
+    def ma(n):
+        return sum(closes[-n:]) / n
+    ma5 = ma(5)
+    ma10 = ma(10) if len(closes) >= 10 else None
+    ma20 = ma(20) if len(closes) >= 20 else None
+
+    # 趋势分析
+    pct_above_ma5 = (current - ma5) / ma5 * 100
+    uptrend = False
+
+    if ma20 and ma10:
+        if ma5 > ma10 > ma20:
+            trend_label = "多头排列"
+            uptrend = True
+        elif current < ma5 and ma5 < ma10 and current < ma10:
+            trend_label = "空头排列"
+        elif current > ma5 and ma5 > ma10:
+            trend_label = "短期转强"
+            uptrend = True
+        else:
+            trend_label = "震荡"
+            if current > ma5 > ma10:
+                uptrend = True
+    else:
+        trend_label = "数据不足"
+
+    return {
+        'price': current,
+        'ma5': round(ma5, 2),
+        'ma10': round(ma10, 2) if ma10 else None,
+        'ma20': round(ma20, 2) if ma20 else None,
+        'pct_above_ma5': round(pct_above_ma5, 1),
+        'trend': trend_label,
+        'uptrend': uptrend,
+    }
+
+# ── XMPP
 XMPP_BRIDGE = "http://127.0.0.1:5805/"
 XMPP_USER = "hmo@yoin.fun"
 
@@ -278,10 +344,11 @@ def main():
         -code_data.get(s[1], {}).get("rr_ratio", 0)
     ))
 
-    # 只展示有清晰操作信号的个股：不含"等企稳""关注""信号不充分""neutral"及纯持有信号
-    SKIP_KEYWORDS = ["等企稳", "关注", "信号不充分"]
-
-    BUY_KEYWORDS = ["买入", "加仓"]
+    # 只展示有清晰操作信号的个股
+    # timing_signal 必须是明确操作方向：买入/加仓/观望/关注/信号不充分
+    # 行业描述（行业偏弱/行业偏强/大盘变盘等）不是操作信号，一律跳过
+    VALID_SIGNALS = {"买入", "加仓", "观望", "关注", "信号不充分"}
+    SKIP_KEYWORDS = ["等企稳", "信号不充分"]
 
     actionable = []
     for s in stocks:
@@ -292,9 +359,19 @@ def main():
         if any(kw in sig for kw in SKIP_KEYWORDS):
             continue
         # 中性信号跳过
-        stripped = sig.strip().lower()
-        if not stripped or stripped in ("", "neutral", "持有", "深套持有", "弱势持有"):
+        stripped = sig.strip()
+        if not stripped or stripped.lower() in ("", "neutral", "持有", "深套持有", "弱势持有"):
             continue
+        # 信号必须含买入/加仓才推荐——其他非操作信号跳过
+        if not any(kw in sig for kw in ["买入", "加仓"]):
+            continue
+        # 趋势检查：必须不是空头排列（价格在MA5以下且MA5<MA10）
+        trend = fetch_trend_data(s[1])
+        if trend:
+            if not trend['uptrend']:
+                # 空头排列或弱势震荡，不推荐
+                continue
+        # (如果趋势数据获取失败，放行—不因数据问题错杀)
         actionable.append(s)
 
     if not actionable:
@@ -613,6 +690,15 @@ def main():
         cooled, elapsed, cd_key = in_cooldown(code, branch_action, cooldown)
         if cooled:
             continue
+        
+        # 策略质量过滤：只有正向/中性信号才推操作建议
+        bad_keywords = ["偏弱", "弱势", "观望", "卖出", "回避", "回避"]
+        if any(kw in sig for kw in bad_keywords):
+            continue
+        
+        # 行业背景过滤：行业大跌时不在买入区推荐（即使个股信号好）
+        if "大跌" in sector:
+            continue
 
         # 换仓评估：现金不足时评估是否卖差票换推荐股
         swap_text = None