docs: 预测超跌反弹策略研究成果归档（方法论/策略文档/研究记录/脚本）

- 新增 strategy_research_methodology.md（由果及因/12维/铁律/支撑压力规范）
- 新增 predictive_oversold_strategy.md（v5定稿，年化18.57%）
- 新增 deployment-plan-predictive-oversold.md（整合部署计划）
- 归档 docs/research/（63份研究过程文档）+ scripts/research/（19个研究脚本）
- 更新 docs/README.md 文档中心（策略研究章节）

scripts/research/step48_predict_dd.py

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+# step48_predict_dd.py - 阴跌中段判定测试
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+print("=== 加载 ===", flush=True)
+tr = pd.read_csv("/tmp/step43_trades.csv")
+print("交易:", len(tr), flush=True)
+print("全量: avg={:.2f}% wr={:.1f}% 大亏率={:.1f}%".format(
+    tr["ret"].mean(), (tr["ret"]>0).mean()*100, (tr["ret"]<-10).mean()*100), flush=True)
+
+def evaluate(cond, label):
+    sub = tr[cond]
+    if len(sub) < 50:
+        print("{}: n={} 不足".format(label, len(sub)), flush=True)
+        return
+    avg = sub["ret"].mean()
+    wr = (sub["ret"]>0).mean()*100
+    big_loss = (sub["ret"]<-10).mean()*100
+    print("{}: n={} avg={:.2f}% wr={:.1f}% 大亏率={:.1f}%".format(
+        label, len(sub), avg, wr, big_loss), flush=True)
+
+print("\n=== 单特征阈值扫描 ===", flush=True)
+print("\n-- mkt_down_days >= N --", flush=True)
+for t in [2, 3, 4]:
+    evaluate(tr["mkt_down_days"] >= t, "连跌>={}（阴跌）".format(t))
+
+print("\n-- sig_mkt_adx <= N --", flush=True)
+for t in [40, 45, 50, 55]:
+    evaluate(tr["sig_mkt_adx"] <= t, "adx<={}（弱趋势）".format(t))
+
+print("\n-- mkt_news5 <= N --", flush=True)
+for t in [1000, 1500, 2000]:
+    evaluate(tr["mkt_news5"] <= t, "news<={}（冷清）".format(t))
+
+print("\n=== 组合：阴跌中段判定 ===", flush=True)
+yin_die = (tr["mkt_down_days"] >= 2) & (tr["sig_mkt_adx"] <= 50)
+print("阴跌判定(连跌>=2+adx<=50) 命中:", yin_die.sum(), flush=True)
+evaluate(~yin_die, "保留（非阴跌）")
+evaluate(yin_die, "跳过（阴跌）")
+
+yin_die2 = (tr["mkt_down_days"] >= 2) & (tr["sig_mkt_adx"] <= 50) & (tr["mkt_news5"] <= 2000)
+print("阴跌判定2(+news<=2000) 命中:", yin_die2.sum(), flush=True)
+evaluate(~yin_die2, "保留（非阴跌2）")
+evaluate(yin_die2, "跳过（阴跌2）")
+
+yin_die3 = (tr["mkt_down_days"] >= 2) & (tr["sig_mkt_adx"] <= 55) & (tr["sig_mkt_rsi"] >= 33)
+print("阴跌判定3(连跌>=2+adx<=55+rsi>=33) 命中:", yin_die3.sum(), flush=True)
+evaluate(~yin_die3, "保留（非阴跌3）")
+evaluate(yin_die3, "跳过（阴跌3）")
+
+print("\n=== 完成 ===", flush=True)