换仓评估改全面分析：用决策系统信号评分代替单纯看亏损%\n\n老逻辑：按亏损比例排序，亏最少的先卖 → 错（阿里亏22%但基本面好）\n新逻辑：score_future_outlook() 多维度评分，按前景排序\n\n评分维度：\n1. timing_signal — 买入+3，深套持有-2，持有-0.5\n2. 技术形态 — bearish-1.5，bullish+1.5\n3. 量价关系 — 卖盘-1，买盘+1\n4. 行业背景 — 大跌-0.5\n5. 盈亏比RR — RR≥2得+1，RR<1得-0.5\n6. 股票类别 — 蓝筹+0.5，深套/弱势-0.5\n\n实测：招商银行(亏-3%)评分-4.5（弱势持有+银行大跌+技术偏空），\n双一科技(亏-16%)评分-4.0（持有+bearish+卖盘主导+弱势）\n→ 推荐卖这俩腾38,780元买海博思创

data/decisions.json

@@ -9623,5 +9623,5 @@
     }
   ],
   "total": 42,
-  "regenerated_at": "2026-06-24 11:47"
+  "regenerated_at": "2026-06-24 11:54"
 }

data/portfolio.json

@@ -54,8 +54,8 @@
         "action_note": "深套持有",
         "timing_signal": "持有"
       },
-      "price": 7.66,
+      "price": 7.71,
-      "change_pct": -2.79
+      "change_pct": -2.16
     },
     {
       "code": "600739",
@@ -167,7 +167,7 @@
         "action_note": "深套持有",
         "timing_signal": "持有"
       },
-      "price": 98.85,
+      "price": 98.95,
       "change_pct": -0.1
     },
     {
@@ -252,8 +252,8 @@
         "action_note": "短炒强趋势持",
         "timing_signal": "持有"
       },
-      "price": 96.3,
+      "price": 95.1,
-      "change_pct": 10.37
+      "change_pct": 9.11
     },
     {
       "code": "02202",
@@ -281,8 +281,8 @@
         "action_note": "深套持有",
         "timing_signal": "持有"
       },
-      "price": 2.37,
+      "price": 2.36,
-      "change_pct": -1.25
+      "change_pct": -1.67
     },
     {
       "code": "02388",
@@ -310,7 +310,7 @@
         "action_note": "",
         "timing_signal": "持有"
       },
-      "price": 46.26,
+      "price": 46.22,
       "change_pct": -1.57
     },
     {
@@ -367,7 +367,7 @@
         "action_note": "深套持有",
         "timing_signal": "持有"
       },
-      "price": 74.8,
+      "price": 74.85,
       "change_pct": -1.38
     },
     {
@@ -396,8 +396,8 @@
         "action_note": "⚠️盈亏比偏低(1:1.0)，不建议加仓",
         "timing_signal": "持有"
       },
-      "price": 418.8,
+      "price": 419.0,
-      "change_pct": 0.82
+      "change_pct": 1.06
     },
     {
       "code": "00981",
@@ -425,8 +425,8 @@
         "action_note": "",
         "timing_signal": "持有"
       },
-      "price": 85.05,
+      "price": 84.75,
-      "change_pct": 9.31
+      "change_pct": 9.12
     },
     {
       "code": "09868",
@@ -454,8 +454,8 @@
         "action_note": "⚠️盈亏比偏低(1:1.0)，不建议加仓",
         "timing_signal": "持有"
       },
-      "price": 50.0,
+      "price": 49.94,
-      "change_pct": 1.22
+      "change_pct": 1.05
     },
     {
       "code": "600036",
@@ -539,8 +539,8 @@
         "action_note": "⚠️盈亏比偏低(1:1.2)，不建议加仓",
         "timing_signal": "持有"
       },
-      "price": 52.75,
+      "price": 52.8,
-      "change_pct": -1.59
+      "change_pct": -1.4
     },
     {
       "code": "300035",
@@ -653,7 +653,7 @@
         "timing_signal": "持有"
       },
       "price": 41.84,
-      "change_pct": -0.52
+      "change_pct": -0.33
     },
     {
       "code": "600563",

scripts/stale_push_wlin.py

@@ -395,26 +395,101 @@ def main():
         return theo_pct, pct_actual, details, lots, lot_cost_total
 
     # ── 换仓评估 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-    def evaluate_swap(lot_cost_target, rr, sig, tp, sl, name, code, price_in, total_assets_in, cash_in, pf_in):
+    def score_future_outlook(code_in, h_data, cd_in):
+        """基于决策系统已有的分析数据，评估持仓的未来前景评分。
+        
+        评分越低（负数越大）= 前景越差，越值得考虑卖出。
+        评分越高（正数越大）= 前景越好，应该保留。
+        
+        考虑维度（按重要度排序）：
+        1. timing_signal — 决策系统输出的主信号
+        2. 技术形态 — bearish/bullish/neutral
+        3. 量价关系 — 买卖盘主导
+        4. 行业背景 — 板块强弱
+        5. 盈亏比RR — 预期收益/风险
+        6. 股票类别 — 蓝筹/深套/题材
+        """
+        d = cd_in.get(code_in, {})
+        if not d:
+            return -999  # 无数据=前景未知，保守视为差
+        
+        score = 0
+        reasons = []
+        
+        # 1. timing_signal — 最直接的信号
+        signal = (d.get('timing_signal') or '').strip()
+        if '买入' in signal or '加仓' in signal:
+            score += 3
+            reasons.append('有买入信号')
+        elif '深套持有' in signal or '弱势持有' in signal:
+            score -= 2
+            reasons.append('深套/弱势持有')
+        elif signal in ('持有', '') or not signal:
+            score -= 0.5  # 中性偏弱（没有积极信号就是消极信号）
+            reasons.append('无积极信号')
+        
+        # 2. 技术形态
+        tech = (d.get('tech_snapshot') or '') or ''
+        if '/bearish' in tech:
+            score -= 1.5
+            reasons.append('技术偏空')
+        elif '/bullish' in tech:
+            score += 1.5
+            reasons.append('技术偏多')
+        
+        # 3. 量价关系
+        if '主动卖盘占优' in tech:
+            score -= 1
+            reasons.append('卖盘主导')
+        elif '主动买盘占优' in tech:
+            score += 1
+            reasons.append('买盘主导')
+        
+        # 4. 行业背景（大跌/大涨）
+        sector = (d.get('sector_context') or '') or ''
+        if '大跌' in sector or '偏弱' in sector:
+            score -= 0.5
+        if '大涨' in sector or '偏强' in sector:
+            score += 0.5
+        
+        # 5. 盈亏比RR
+        rr = d.get('rr_ratio', 0) or 0
+        if rr >= 2:
+            score += 1
+            reasons.append(f'RR{rr:.1f}≥2')
+        elif rr < 1:
+            score -= 0.5
+            reasons.append(f'RR{rr:.1f}<1')
+        
+        # 6. 股票类别
+        cat = (d.get('stock_category') or '') or ''
+        if '蓝筹' in cat or '白马' in cat:
+            score += 0.5
+        elif '深套' in cat or '弱势' in cat:
+            score -= 0.5
+        
+        return round(score, 1)
+    
+    def evaluate_swap(lot_cost_target, rr, sig, tp, sl, name, code, price_in,
+                      total_assets_in, cash_in, pf_in, cd_in):
         """现金不足时评估是否卖差票换推荐股。
         
-        核心逻辑：已发生的亏损是沉没成本，不参与决策。
+        核心逻辑：
-        只比较：持有 old 票的未来预期 vs 换到 new 票的未来预期。
+        - 已发生的亏损是沉没成本，不参与决策
-        
+        - 用"全面分析"法评估每个持仓的未来前景（基于决策系统既有数据）
-        对深套票(<-15%)默认未来预期收益≈-5%~0%（死钱）。
+        - 优先卖前景最差的票，保留前景好的票（无论当前盈亏%）
-        对目标票(RR>=3+买入信号)默认未来预期收益≈(tp-price)/price×胜率。
+        - 对目标票(RR>=3+买入信号)才有换仓资格
-        如果目标票的未来收益预期显著更好，推荐切换。
         
         返回（推荐文案str, 缺口float）或 (None, gap)
         """
         gap = lot_cost_target - cash_in
-        # 目标票质量门槛：换仓需要比普通买入更高的置信度
+        # 目标票质量门槛
         if rr < 3.0 or gap <= 0 or gap > total_assets_in * 0.5:
             return None, gap
         if not any(kw in sig for kw in ["买入", "加仓", "建仓"]):
             return None, gap
         
-        # 收集持仓盈亏数据
+        # 收集持仓数据 + 前景评分
         ph = []
         for h in pf_in.get("holdings", []):
             hs = h.get("shares", 0) or 0
@@ -425,49 +500,67 @@ def main():
             hmv = hs * hp
             h_code = str(h.get("code", ""))
             if len(h_code) <= 5:
-                hmv *= 0.866
+                hmv *= 0.866  # approximate HKD→CNY
             hpl_pct = (hp - hc) / hc * 100 if hc else 0
-            ph.append({"code": h_code, "name": h.get("name", ""),
+            
-                       "shares": hs, "price": hp, "cost": hc,
+            # 全面评分（越低越差，越建议卖）
-                       "mv": round(hmv), "pl_pct": round(hpl_pct, 1)})
+            fscore = score_future_outlook(h_code, h, cd_in)
+            
+            ph.append({
+                "code": h_code,
+                "name": h.get("name", ""),
+                "shares": hs,
+                "price": hp,
+                "cost": hc,
+                "mv": round(hmv),
+                "pl_pct": round(hpl_pct, 1),
+                "score": fscore,
+            })
         
-        # 只考虑深套票(<-15%)作为减仓候候选 — 死钱，不如换到有信号的位置
+        # 按前景评分升序（最差的排最前面）
-        ph.sort(key=lambda x: x["pl_pct"])
+        ph.sort(key=lambda x: x["score"])
-        candidates = [h for h in ph if h["pl_pct"] < -15]
+        
+        # 打印调试信息：所有持仓的前景评分
+        # print(f"[SWAP_DEBUG] 前景评分(越低越差):", file=sys.stderr)
+        # for x in ph[:10]:
+        #     print(f"  {x['name']}({x['code']}) 评分{x['score']} 亏{x['pl_pct']}% 市值{x['mv']:,}", file=sys.stderr)
+        
+        # 只考虑评分<=0（前景差或中性偏弱）的作为减仓候选
+        candidates = [h for h in ph if h["score"] <= 0]
         if not candidates:
             return None, gap
         
-        # 优先选"锁亏效率高"的（锁定亏损占市值比例低的）
+        # 贪心选评分最差的，凑够现金缺口（最多2只）
-        # 效率 = mv / abs(pl) ，越大说明亏损占比越小
-        for h in candidates:
-            h["eff"] = round(h["mv"] / max(abs(h["pl_pct"]) / 100 * h["mv"], 1), 1)
-        candidates.sort(key=lambda x: -x["eff"])  # 效率高的优先
-        
         selected = []
         cash_freed = 0
-        total_mv_sold = 0
         for h in candidates:
             if cash_freed >= gap:
                 break
             cash_freed += h["mv"]
-            total_mv_sold += h["mv"]
             selected.append(h)
         
         if cash_freed < gap or len(selected) > 2:
             return None, gap
         
-        # 计算目标票的预期涨幅（到期权价值）
+        # 计算目标票的预期涨幅
         if tp and tp > 0:
-            target_gain_pct = (tp - price_in) / price_in * 100  # e.g. 16.9%
+            target_gain_pct = (tp - price_in) / price_in * 100
         else:
-            target_gain_pct = rr * 3  # RR*3%~粗略
+            target_gain_pct = rr * 3
         
-        # 沉没成本不参与决策 — 直接描述方案
+        # 构建推荐文案
-        sell_desc = "；".join(
+        sell_parts = []
-            f"{h['name']}({h['code']}) {h['shares']}股 亏{h['pl_pct']}%"
+        sell_names = []
-            for h in selected
+        for h in selected:
-        )
+            # 每个被选股票配一句"为什么卖它"
-        sell_note = "、".join(h['name'] for h in selected)
+            reason = f"前景评分{h['score']}"
+            if h['pl_pct'] <= -30:
+                reason += "深套"
+            elif h['pl_pct'] <= -15:
+                reason += f"亏损{h['pl_pct']}%"
+            sell_parts.append(f"{h['name']}({h['code']}) {h['shares']}股 亏{h['pl_pct']}% ({reason})")
+            sell_names.append(h['name'])
+        sell_desc = "；".join(sell_parts)
         
         new_budget = cash_in + cash_freed
         new_lots = int(new_budget / lot_cost_target) if lot_cost_target > 0 else 0
@@ -482,17 +575,6 @@ def main():
         new_cost = new_lots * lot_cost_target
         new_pct = round(new_cost / total_assets_in * 100) if total_assets_in > 0 else 0
         
-        # 盈亏回本期望对比
-        # 深套票继续持有预期：这些票已深套恢复遥遥无期，继续持有预期收益≈-5%~0%
-        # 新票预期：止损-3%~止盈+target_gain_pct，RR指引正向
-        # 更实用的表述：卖掉的票回本需涨多少 vs 新票上涨潜力
-        recovery_needed = []
-        for h in selected:
-            if h["pl_pct"] < 0:
-                recover = round(-h["pl_pct"] / (100 + h["pl_pct"]) * 100, 1) if h["pl_pct"] > -100 else 999
-                recovery_needed.append(f"{h['name']}需涨{recover}%回本")
-        recover_str = "，".join(recovery_needed)
-        
         text = (
             f"换仓建议：卖{sell_desc}"
             f"→腾{round(cash_freed):,}元"
@@ -501,10 +583,9 @@ def main():
             f"（止损{sl}(-{round((price_in-sl)/price_in*100,1)}%)"
             f"止盈{tp}(+{round(target_gain_pct,1)}%)"
             f" RR={rr}）\n"
-            f"    理由：{sell_note}已深套，回本需{recover_str}不现实，"
+            f"    理由：{', '.join(sell_names)}前景评分最低，"
-            f"继续持有大概率继续亏（死钱）；"
+            f"继续持有无积极信号且技术偏弱；"
-            f"换仓到有信号票，止损可控(-3%)，"
+            f"换到有明确信号和止损的标的，预期收益更优。"
-            f"上行空间(+{round(target_gain_pct,1)}%)明确。"
         )
         return text, gap
 
@@ -598,7 +679,7 @@ def main():
         if lots == 0:
             swap_text, _ = evaluate_swap(
                 lot, rr, sig, tp, sl, name, code, price,
-                total_assets, available_cash, pf
+                total_assets, available_cash, pf, code_data
             )
         
         lines.append(