1.1 KiB
1.1 KiB
数据: 9192884 形态样本: 527551
老莫买点形态识别 v2（横盘→吸筹→回踩→企稳）
样本: 527551, 股票: 1994
基线（全部样本）: fwd20 1.3%, 胜率 47%
形态条件逐步叠加
| 条件 | 样本 | fwd20均值 | 胜率 | 提升 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 低位(距60日低点<15%) | 293212 | 1.9% | 49% | +0.6% |
| +横盘(振幅<20%) | 228624 | 1.1% | 49% | -0.2% |
| +放量吸筹(量能>2x) | 18289 | 1.1% | 47% | -0.2% |
| +吸筹温和涨(3~25%) | 11785 | 1.0% | 46% | -0.3% |
| +缩量回踩(<0.6x) | 2692 | 0.6% | 45% | -0.7% |
| +不破支撑 | 2465 | 0.2% | 44% | -1.1% |
| +企稳(当日转涨) | 1178 | -0.2% | 42% | -1.5% |
完整形态 分年
| 年份 | 均值 | 样本 | 胜率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | -0.8% | 49 | 31% |
| 2017 | -2.7% | 114 | 37% |
| 2018 | -6.0% | 54 | 20% |
| 2019 | 1.5% | 79 | 43% |
| 2020 | 2.3% | 184 | 57% |
| 2021 | 0.1% | 146 | 43% |
| 2022 | -1.6% | 99 | 40% |
| 2023 | -1.3% | 204 | 36% |
| 2024 | 6.4% | 90 | 62% |
| 2025 | 0.1% | 110 | 47% |
| 2026 | -5.7% | 49 | 18% |
| WROTE |